Team Liquid vs CTBC Flying Oyster
Round 1 · Fri 23 Oct, 23:00 UK
TL 88.5%11.5% CFO
Expected values
20.39.53.031:541.62.09.0
Total kills 29.3 · towers 11.5 · dragons 4.6
Bet365 fair chance for TL (Map 1): 68.8% · model: 88.5% (+19.7 pts)
Model disagrees strongly with the market, so it's probably missing context. Treat its edges here with caution.
| LCS 1495 | League baseline | LCP 1294 |
| +181 | 2026 results | +21 |
| 1595 | Performance (40% share) | 1280 |
| 6-6 | International games | 0-0 |
| – | Pedigree | – |
| 1643 | Rating | 1301 |
Different leagues: domestic form counts for a quarter, and league baselines plus international results set the gap.
Bet365 odds vs our numbers
Implied = 1 ÷ price. Fair = implied with the bookmaker margin removed. Ours = model (winners) or share of both teams' 2026 games that would have won the bet. Edge = ours − implied.
| Market | Selection | Price | Implied | Fair | Ours | Edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Map 1 · Map winner | TL to win | 1.36 | 73.5% | 68.8% | 88.5% | +15.0 | – | |
| CFO to win | 3.00 | 33.3% | 31.2% | 11.5% | -21.9 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Kill handicap | TL -8.5 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | 64.8% | +12.1 | – | |
| CFO +8.5 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 35.2% | -20.3 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Dragon handicap | TL -0.5 | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 65.8% | +7.7 | – | |
| CFO +0.5 | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 34.2% | -15.8 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Tower handicap | TL -5.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 72.8% | +18.2 | – | |
| CFO +5.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 27.2% | -27.5 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Total kills | Over 28.5 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | 42.0% | -10.6 | – | |
| Under 28.5 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 58.0% | +2.4 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Total towers | Over 11.5 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 46.1% | -9.5 | – | |
| Under 11.5 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | 53.9% | +1.3 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Total dragons | Over 4.5 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 50.4% | -5.1 | – | |
| Under 4.5 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | 49.6% | -3.1 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Map duration (min) | Over 31.5 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | 50.1% | -2.5 | – | |
| Under 31.5 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 49.9% | -5.7 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most assists | Josedeodo -2.5 v Shad0w | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 56.1% | -2.1 | – | |
| Shad0w +2.5 v Josedeodo | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 43.9% | -6.1 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most assists | Kino +4.5 v CoreJJ | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 40.2% | -14.5 | – | |
| CoreJJ -4.5 v Kino | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 59.8% | +5.2 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most assists | Doggo +2.5 v Yeon | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 40.5% | -9.5 | – | |
| Yeon -2.5 v Doggo | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 59.5% | +1.4 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most assists | Quid -2.5 v Pout | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 54.5% | -1.1 | – | |
| Pout +2.5 v Quid | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | 45.5% | -7.1 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player kills | Morgan over 2.5 | 1.57 | 63.7% | 58.9% | 44.2% | -19.5 | – | |
| Morgan under 2.5 | 2.25 | 44.4% | 41.1% | 55.8% | +11.3 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player kills | Josedeodo over 4.5 | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 46.6% | -3.4 | – | |
| Josedeodo under 4.5 | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 53.4% | -4.7 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player kills | Quid over 5.5 | 2.20 | 45.5% | 42.3% | 50.6% | +5.2 | – | |
| Quid under 5.5 | 1.61 | 62.1% | 57.7% | 49.4% | -12.7 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player kills | Yeon over 4.5 | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 54.3% | -3.9 | – | |
| Yeon under 4.5 | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 45.7% | -4.3 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player kills | CoreJJ over 0.5 | 1.57 | 63.7% | 58.9% | 56.4% | -7.3 | – | |
| CoreJJ under 0.5 | 2.25 | 44.4% | 41.1% | 43.6% | -0.8 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player kills | Rest over 1.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 61.4% | +6.7 | – | |
| Rest under 1.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 38.6% | -16.0 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player kills | Shad0w over 2.5 | 2.10 | 47.6% | 44.1% | 35.5% | -12.2 | – | |
| Shad0w under 2.5 | 1.66 | 60.2% | 55.9% | 64.5% | +4.3 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player kills | Pout over 2.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 52.2% | -2.4 | – | |
| Pout under 2.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -6.8 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player kills | Doggo over 3.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 51.8% | -2.8 | – | |
| Doggo under 3.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -6.5 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player kills | Kino over 0.5 | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 32.9% | -17.1 | – | |
| Kino under 0.5 | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 67.1% | +9.0 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player deaths | Morgan over 1.5 | 1.53 | 65.4% | 60.8% | 54.2% | -11.2 | – | |
| Morgan under 1.5 | 2.37 | 42.2% | 39.2% | 45.8% | +3.6 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player deaths | Josedeodo over 1.5 | 1.57 | 63.7% | 58.9% | 53.5% | -10.2 | – | |
| Josedeodo under 1.5 | 2.25 | 44.4% | 41.1% | 46.5% | +2.1 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player deaths | Quid over 2.5 | 2.25 | 44.4% | 41.1% | 33.9% | -10.5 | – | |
| Quid under 2.5 | 1.57 | 63.7% | 58.9% | 66.1% | +2.4 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player deaths | Yeon over 1.5 | 1.57 | 63.7% | 58.9% | 53.1% | -10.6 | – | |
| Yeon under 1.5 | 2.25 | 44.4% | 41.1% | 46.9% | +2.4 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player deaths | CoreJJ over 1.5 | 1.53 | 65.4% | 60.8% | 52.4% | -13.0 | – | |
| CoreJJ under 1.5 | 2.37 | 42.2% | 39.2% | 47.6% | +5.4 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player deaths | Rest over 3.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 42.7% | -11.9 | – | |
| Rest under 3.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 57.3% | +2.6 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player deaths | Shad0w over 4.5 | 2.25 | 44.4% | 41.1% | 53.7% | +9.3 | – | |
| Shad0w under 4.5 | 1.57 | 63.7% | 58.9% | 46.3% | -17.4 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player deaths | Pout over 3.5 | 2.10 | 47.6% | 44.1% | 45.9% | -1.7 | – | |
| Pout under 3.5 | 1.66 | 60.2% | 55.9% | 54.1% | -6.1 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player deaths | Doggo over 3.5 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | 47.9% | -4.8 | – | |
| Doggo under 3.5 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 52.1% | -3.4 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player deaths | Kino over 4.5 | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 49.3% | -0.7 | – | |
| Kino under 4.5 | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 50.7% | -7.4 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player assists | Morgan over 6.5 | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 50.4% | +0.4 | – | |
| Morgan under 6.5 | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 49.6% | -8.6 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player assists | Josedeodo over 8.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 55.3% | +0.6 | – | |
| Josedeodo under 8.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 44.7% | -9.9 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player assists | Quid over 7.5 | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 44.6% | -5.4 | – | |
| Quid under 7.5 | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 55.4% | -2.7 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player assists | Yeon over 6.5 | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 59.5% | +1.4 | – | |
| Yeon under 6.5 | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 40.5% | -9.5 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player assists | CoreJJ over 12.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 63.3% | +8.7 | – | |
| CoreJJ under 12.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 36.7% | -18.0 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player assists | Rest over 4.5 | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 39.2% | -10.8 | – | |
| Rest under 4.5 | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 60.8% | +2.7 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player assists | Shad0w over 5.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -5.9 | – | |
| Shad0w under 5.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 51.3% | -3.4 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player assists | Pout over 4.5 | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 47.3% | -2.7 | – | |
| Pout under 4.5 | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 52.7% | -5.5 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player assists | Doggo over 3.5 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | 49.1% | -3.5 | – | |
| Doggo under 3.5 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 50.9% | -4.7 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player assists | Kino over 7.5 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 49.1% | -6.4 | – | |
| Kino under 7.5 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | 50.9% | -1.7 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most kills | Morgan -1.5 v Rest | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | 43.2% | -9.4 | – | |
| Rest +1.5 v Morgan | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 56.8% | +1.3 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most kills | Josedeodo -2.5 v Shad0w | 2.10 | 47.6% | 44.1% | 40.5% | -7.1 | – | |
| Shad0w +2.5 v Josedeodo | 1.66 | 60.2% | 55.9% | 59.5% | -0.8 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most kills | Quid -2.5 v Pout | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -5.6 | – | |
| Pout +2.5 v Quid | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 51.0% | -3.7 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most kills | Yeon -1.5 v Doggo | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 48.9% | -1.1 | – | |
| Doggo +1.5 v Yeon | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 51.1% | -7.1 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most kills | CoreJJ -0.5 v Kino | 2.25 | 44.4% | 41.1% | 44.7% | +0.3 | – | |
| Kino +0.5 v CoreJJ | 1.57 | 63.7% | 58.9% | 55.3% | -8.4 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most deaths | Morgan +1.5 v Rest | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 44.8% | -9.8 | – | |
| Rest -1.5 v Morgan | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 55.2% | +0.5 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most deaths | Josedeodo +2.5 v Shad0w | 1.66 | 60.2% | 55.9% | 53.7% | -6.5 | – | |
| Shad0w -2.5 v Josedeodo | 2.10 | 47.6% | 44.1% | 46.3% | -1.3 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most deaths | Quid +1.5 v Pout | 1.61 | 62.1% | 57.7% | 46.5% | -15.6 | – | |
| Pout -1.5 v Quid | 2.20 | 45.5% | 42.3% | 53.5% | +8.1 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most deaths | Yeon +1.5 v Doggo | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 45.4% | -9.2 | – | |
| Doggo -1.5 v Yeon | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 54.6% | -0.1 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most deaths | CoreJJ +2.5 v Kino | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 53.2% | -4.9 | – | |
| Kino -2.5 v CoreJJ | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 46.8% | -3.2 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most assists | Morgan -1.5 v Rest | 1.66 | 60.2% | 55.9% | 61.3% | +1.1 | – | |
| Rest +1.5 v Morgan | 2.10 | 47.6% | 44.1% | 38.7% | -8.9 | – |
Barons and inhibitors aren't in our match data, so those lines show the price only. Not betting advice.
1 snapshot · last Fri 23 Oct, 14:29
Try pulling from Bet365
Bet365 usually blocks automatic reading. Each try uses one Firecrawl credit.