Team Secret Whales vs LYON
Round 1 · Sat 24 Oct, 01:00 UK
TSW 24.0%76.0% LYON
Expected values
12.24.12.032:282.57.516.4
Total kills 28.3 · towers 11.6 · dragons 4.6
Bet365 fair chance for TSW (Map 1): 37.5% · model: 24.0% (-13.5 pts)
| LCP 1294 | League baseline | LCS 1495 |
| +173 | 2026 results | +126 |
| 1453 | Performance (40% share) | 1607 |
| 4-16 | International games | 15-17 |
| – | Pedigree | – |
| 1462 | Rating | 1615 |
Different leagues: domestic form counts for a quarter, and league baselines plus international results set the gap.
Bet365 odds vs our numbers
Implied = 1 ÷ price. Fair = implied with the bookmaker margin removed. Ours = model (winners) or share of both teams' 2026 games that would have won the bet. Edge = ours − implied.
| Market | Selection | Price | Implied | Fair | Ours | Edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Map 1 · Map winner | TSW to win | 2.50 | 40.0% | 37.5% | 24.0% | -16.0 | – | |
| LYON to win | 1.50 | 66.7% | 62.5% | 76.0% | +9.3 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Kill handicap | TSW +5.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -6.3 | – | |
| LYON -5.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 51.6% | -3.0 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Total towers | Over 11.5 | 1.61 | 62.1% | 57.7% | 53.3% | -8.9 | – | |
| Under 11.5 | 2.20 | 45.5% | 42.3% | 46.7% | +1.3 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Total dragons | Over 4.5 | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 54.8% | -3.4 | – | |
| Under 4.5 | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 45.2% | -4.8 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Map duration (min) | Over 32.5 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 47.4% | -8.1 | – | |
| Under 32.5 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | 51.6% | -1.0 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most assists | Saint -0.5 v Dire | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 57.4% | +7.4 | – | |
| Dire +0.5 v Saint | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 42.6% | -15.6 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most assists | Berserker -0.5 v Eddie | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 50.5% | +0.5 | – | |
| Eddie +0.5 v Berserker | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 49.5% | -8.6 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most assists | Bie +0.5 v Isles | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 36.8% | -17.9 | – | |
| Isles -0.5 v Bie | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 63.2% | +8.6 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player kills | Pun over 2.5 | 2.50 | 40.0% | 37.5% | 48.6% | +8.6 | – | |
| Pun under 2.5 | 1.50 | 66.7% | 62.5% | 51.4% | -15.3 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player kills | Hizto over 2.5 | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 56.6% | -1.5 | – | |
| Hizto under 2.5 | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 43.4% | -6.6 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player kills | Dire over 3.5 | 2.10 | 47.6% | 44.1% | 32.2% | -15.4 | – | |
| Dire under 3.5 | 1.66 | 60.2% | 55.9% | 67.8% | +7.6 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most deaths | Bie +0.5 v Isles | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 67.1% | +8.9 | – | |
| Isles -0.5 v Bie | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 32.9% | -17.1 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most assists | Pun +0.5 v Dhokla | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 48.5% | -6.2 | – | |
| Dhokla -0.5 v Pun | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 51.5% | -3.1 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most assists | Hizto +0.5 v Inspired | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 46.5% | -9.0 | – | |
| Inspired -0.5 v Hizto | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | 53.5% | +0.8 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player kills | Eddie over 3.5 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 37.6% | -17.9 | – | |
| Eddie under 3.5 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | 62.4% | +9.7 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player kills | Bie over 0.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 54.3% | -0.3 | – | |
| Bie under 0.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -8.9 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player kills | Dhokla over 2.5 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | 42.4% | -10.2 | – | |
| Dhokla under 2.5 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 57.6% | +2.0 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player kills | Inspired over 2.5 | 1.61 | 62.1% | 57.7% | 52.2% | -9.9 | – | |
| Inspired under 2.5 | 2.20 | 45.5% | 42.3% | 47.8% | +2.3 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player kills | Saint over 4.5 | 2.25 | 44.4% | 41.1% | 38.2% | -6.2 | – | |
| Saint under 4.5 | 1.57 | 63.7% | 58.9% | 61.8% | -1.9 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player kills | Berserker over 4.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 53.3% | -1.4 | – | |
| Berserker under 4.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -7.9 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player kills | Isles over 0.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 37.5% | -17.1 | – | |
| Isles under 0.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 62.5% | +7.8 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player deaths | Pun over 3.5 | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 57.2% | -1.0 | – | |
| Pun under 3.5 | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 42.8% | -7.2 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player deaths | Hizto over 2.5 | 1.57 | 63.7% | 58.9% | 47.7% | -16.0 | – | |
| Hizto under 2.5 | 2.25 | 44.4% | 41.1% | 52.3% | +7.8 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player deaths | Dire over 2.5 | 1.61 | 62.1% | 57.7% | 55.6% | -6.5 | – | |
| Dire under 2.5 | 2.20 | 45.5% | 42.3% | 44.4% | -1.0 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player deaths | Eddie over 2.5 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | 41.8% | -10.8 | – | |
| Eddie under 2.5 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 58.2% | +2.6 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player deaths | Bie over 2.5 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | 46.8% | -5.9 | – | |
| Bie under 2.5 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 53.2% | -2.3 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player deaths | Dhokla over 3.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 32.4% | -22.3 | – | |
| Dhokla under 3.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 67.6% | +13.0 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player deaths | Inspired over 2.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 36.8% | -17.9 | – | |
| Inspired under 2.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 63.2% | +8.6 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player deaths | Saint over 2.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 41.4% | -13.3 | – | |
| Saint under 2.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 58.6% | +4.0 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player deaths | Berserker over 2.5 | 2.25 | 44.4% | 41.1% | 27.8% | -16.7 | – | |
| Berserker under 2.5 | 1.57 | 63.7% | 58.9% | 72.2% | +8.5 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player deaths | Isles over 2.5 | 1.66 | 60.2% | 55.9% | 43.5% | -16.8 | – | |
| Isles under 2.5 | 2.10 | 47.6% | 44.1% | 56.5% | +8.9 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player assists | Pun over 4.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 50.8% | -3.8 | – | |
| Pun under 4.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -5.5 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player assists | Hizto over 6.5 | 2.10 | 47.6% | 44.1% | 44.2% | -3.4 | – | |
| Hizto under 6.5 | 1.66 | 60.2% | 55.9% | 55.8% | -4.5 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player assists | Dire over 5.5 | 2.10 | 47.6% | 44.1% | 36.6% | -11.0 | – | |
| Dire under 5.5 | 1.66 | 60.2% | 55.9% | 63.4% | +3.1 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player assists | Eddie over 5.5 | 2.20 | 45.5% | 42.3% | 33.2% | -12.3 | – | |
| Eddie under 5.5 | 1.61 | 62.1% | 57.7% | 66.8% | +4.7 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player assists | Bie over 10.5 | 2.10 | 47.6% | 44.1% | 30.6% | -17.0 | – | |
| Bie under 10.5 | 1.66 | 60.2% | 55.9% | 69.4% | +9.1 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player assists | Dhokla over 5.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 42.5% | -12.2 | – | |
| Dhokla under 5.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 57.5% | +2.9 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player assists | Inspired over 6.5 | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 47.2% | -10.9 | – | |
| Inspired under 6.5 | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 52.8% | +2.8 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player assists | Saint over 5.5 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 48.1% | -7.4 | – | |
| Saint under 5.5 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | 51.9% | -0.7 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player assists | Berserker over 5.5 | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 45.2% | -4.8 | – | |
| Berserker under 5.5 | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 54.8% | -3.4 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player assists | Isles over 10.5 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 56.7% | +1.1 | – | |
| Isles under 10.5 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | 43.3% | -9.3 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most kills | Pun +0.5 v Dhokla | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 58.0% | +2.4 | – | |
| Dhokla -0.5 v Pun | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | 42.0% | -10.6 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most kills | Hizto +0.5 v Inspired | 1.66 | 60.2% | 55.9% | 54.4% | -5.8 | – | |
| Inspired -0.5 v Hizto | 2.10 | 47.6% | 44.1% | 45.6% | -2.0 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most kills | Dire +0.5 v Saint | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 45.2% | -4.8 | – | |
| Saint -0.5 v Dire | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 54.8% | -3.3 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most kills | Eddie +0.5 v Berserker | 2.10 | 47.6% | 44.1% | 36.2% | -11.5 | – | |
| Berserker -0.5 v Eddie | 1.66 | 60.2% | 55.9% | 63.8% | +3.6 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most kills | Bie +0.5 v Isles | 1.36 | 73.5% | 68.8% | 77.5% | +4.0 | – | |
| Isles -0.5 v Bie | 3.00 | 33.3% | 31.2% | 22.5% | -10.9 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most deaths | Pun -0.5 v Dhokla | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 61.9% | +11.9 | – | |
| Dhokla +0.5 v Pun | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 38.1% | -20.0 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most deaths | Hizto -0.5 v Inspired | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | 52.7% | +0.1 | – | |
| Inspired +0.5 v Hizto | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 47.3% | -8.3 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most deaths | Dire -0.5 v Saint | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 55.1% | +5.1 | – | |
| Saint +0.5 v Dire | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 44.9% | -13.2 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Player match-up: most deaths | Eddie -0.5 v Berserker | 2.00 | 50.0% | 46.2% | 55.0% | +5.0 | – | |
| Berserker +0.5 v Eddie | 1.72 | 58.1% | 53.8% | 45.0% | -13.1 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Both teams slay a dragon | Both teams slay a dragon: No | 4.00 | 25.0% | 23.4% | 17.6% | -7.4 | – | |
| Both teams slay a dragon: Yes | 1.22 | 82.0% | 76.6% | 82.4% | +0.4 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Total kills | Under 28.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 59.1% | +4.5 | – | |
| Over 28.5 | 1.83 | 54.6% | 50.0% | 40.9% | -13.8 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Tower handicap | TSW +3.5 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | 42.7% | -9.9 | – | |
| LYON -3.5 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 57.3% | +1.7 | – | ||
| Map 1 · Dragon handicap | LYON -0.5 | 1.90 | 52.6% | 48.6% | 46.5% | -6.1 | – | |
| TSW +0.5 | 1.80 | 55.6% | 51.4% | 53.5% | -2.1 | – |
Barons and inhibitors aren't in our match data, so those lines show the price only. Not betting advice.
2 snapshots · last Fri 23 Oct, 14:38
Try pulling from Bet365
Bet365 usually blocks automatic reading. Each try uses one Firecrawl credit.